THE METHOD SCOREBOARD
How well do timing theories actually predict crypto?
We took the classic market-timing methods — geometry, astronomy, Fibonacci — and scored them against real price history the way a skeptic would. Here's every result, edge or no edge.
How we score — and why most methods fail
A hit rate on its own is meaningless. Every method here is put through two tests. Monte-Carlo control:
we score thousands of random dates or price levels and ask whether the real method beats them
(p < 0.05); if random does just as well, there's no edge. Split-half replication: a genuine
effect appears in both halves of the timeline independently — the single test that exposed our one
promising-looking result as a false positive. Sample: 1,417 days of real XRP-USD closes, 152 detected turns.
Full methodology and code live in the blog and
xrp-astronomy/.